Read e-book online Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, 3rd edition, PDF

By Yacov Y. Haimes, Joost R. Santos

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Additional info for Risk Modeling, Assessment, and Management, 3rd edition, Supplementary Problems and Exercises

Example text

The key differences between the two methods is that Car Service A has lower delay times for the lower 75% percentile than Car Service B, yet A has a considerably higher worst-case scenario (30 min. vs. ). This results in a lower expected value when all the fractiles are taken into account, yet a higher expected value when using the triangular distribution (due to the fact that the worse-case scenario has a higher weighting). 3: Cafeteria Entrée A cafeteria is planning to add a new entrée to its menu.

33 minutes. 33 min. 67 minutes. The solutions obtained using Fractile (Part A) and triangular (Part B) distributions vary because of the different methods used to analyze the car services. In both cases Car Service C is the least viable option. This is due to the fact that its worsecase scenario is considerably higher than for options A and B. This contributes to high expected delay times using both methods, which in turns leads to a high expected total cost. Car Service A has the lowest expected cost using the fractile method, and the second-lowest expected cost using the triangular distribution.

DESCRIPTION Bill, a business traveler, is attempting to determine which car service he will use for his frequent trips to the airport. He elicits information from three different rental companies about price, on-time arrival information, and delay statistics. Bill figures that in addition to the cost of the car service, every minute he is late costs him $5 in the first 10 minutes. For every minute he is late after ten minutes, it costs him $20 a minute in stress, increased odds of missed flights, possible missed customer time, etc.

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