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Additional info for Time Series Analysis : Univariate and Multivariate Methods (2nd Edition)
Sample text
3 e (0"2 Known) Suppose y' = (YI' .. , Yn) is a random sample from a Normal distribution N(e, 0"2), where 0" is a supposed known. 2. 14) , the likelihood function of is e I(e I 0", y) oc. 1) where, as before, y is the average of the observations. The standardized likelihood function of is graphically represented by a Norma l curve located by y, with standard deviation O"/y'n. 1 (a) shows a set of standardized likelihood curves which could result from an experiment in which n = 10 and 0" = l. Three different situations are illustrated with data giving averages of y = 6, Y = 9, and y = 12.
L) - -I -;;2 2 ( . n oJ.. I =-::0-. 42) J.. J. 43) 1/2, and
3 25 densi ty. Thus, for independent observations Y(, .. "~ n' the posterior distribution can be written n 11 pee I Y(, .. , Yn) oc p(O) P(Yi 18) . 20) ;=1 and, for sufficiently large 11, the 11 terms introduced by the likelihood will tend to overwhelm the single term contributed by the prior [see Savage, (1954)]. An illuminating iJlustration of the robustness of inference, under sensible modification of the prior, is provided by the study of Mosteller and Wallace (1964) on disputed authorship.
