By Robert S. Erikson, Christopher Wlezien
Read Online or Download The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter PDF
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Extra resources for The Timeline of Presidential Elections: How Campaigns Do (and Do Not) Matter
Sample text
This is not what we would expect from the predictable campaign. Consider also that, while the activities of candidates surely may influence which issues matter on Election Day, priming may impact learning itself. That is, the attention candidates pay to issues may improve the information voters acquire. This can happen either directly through the give-and-take of the campaign (Geer 2006) or indirectly, as voters seek out other information and/or others provide it. 6 Persuasion Although much attention is paid to learning and priming, the holy grail of campaign effects is persuasion.
Political factors are important as well, such as candidates’ position-taking and the popularity of the sitting president. Economic and political circumstances are powerful influences on each election. These external fundamentals together with the internal fundamentals largely determine what happens on Election Day. 3 The Fundamentals and the Campaign How can a discussion of fundamentals help to frame our understanding of election campaigns? One’s first thought might be that the influence of fundamental variables tells us that campaigns do not matter.
We show that even by April, trial-heat polls incorporate considerations that no longer matter by Election Day. Yet April polls also contain information that persists to become part of the final electoral verdict. Between April and November, something happens. In some fashion, the campaign delivers the economic and political fundamentals to the voters. It also delivers less tangible information that analysts cannot readily identify. 1 Electoral Campaigns and the Presidential Vote It is well known that presidential election outcomes are predictable, at least up to a point.
