By James E. Campbell
An fascinating phenomenon in American electoral politics is the lack of seats by way of the president's occasion in midterm congressional elections. among 1862 and 1990, the president's social gathering misplaced seats in the home of Representatives in 32 of the 33 midterm elections. In his new examine, James Campbell examines factors for those midterm losses and explores how presidential elections effect congressional elections.
After reviewing the 2 significant theories of midterm electoral change-the "surge and decline" thought and the speculation of midterms as referenda on presidential functionality Campbell attracts upon each one to suggest and attempt a brand new conception. He asserts that during the years of presidential elections congressmen journey presidential coattails into place of work, whereas in midterm elections such applicants are stranded. an extra issue is the energy of the presidential vote, which affects the variety of seats which are gained, simply to be misplaced later.
Finally, Campbell examines how the presidential pulse could impact electoral responsibility, the connection among Congress and the president, and the relative power of Congress, the president, and political events. He explores the consequences of the presidential pulse for figuring out electoral swap, comparing the yankee voter's
competence, and assessing the significance of split-ticket voting.
Including either election returns and survey facts, The Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections bargains a clean standpoint on congressional elections, vote casting habit, Congress, and the presidency.
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An fascinating phenomenon in American electoral politics is the lack of seats by way of the president's social gathering in midterm congressional elections. among 1862 and 1990, the president's social gathering misplaced seats in the home of Representatives in 32 of the 33 midterm elections. In his new examine, James Campbell examines causes for those midterm losses and explores how presidential elections impression congressional elections.
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For some of these candidates the advantages of the presidential surge election were critical to their election, and without these advantages at the midterm election, they fail to win reelection. Perhaps the best single summary of surge and decline comes from Angus Campbell himself: In the relatively stimulating circumstances of a presidential election the turnout is high…. [R]egular voters whose intrinsic political interest is high enough to take them to the polls even under less stimulating conditions are joined by marginal voters who are less concerned with politics but may be activated if the stakes seem high.
They are a consequence of another electoral decline, the decline in the prevailing short-term political forces of the prior presidential campaign. As Angus Campbell put it, “Fluctuations in the turnout and partisanship of the vote in elections are primarily determined by short-term political forces which become important for the voter at election time. These forces move the turnout by adding stimulation to the underlying level of political interest of the electorate, and they move the partisanship of the vote from a baseline of ‘standing commitments’ to one or the other of the two parties” (Campbell et al.
Page i THE Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections Page ii This page intentionally left blank Page iii THE Presidential Pulse of Congressional Elections Second Edition JAMES E. CAMPBELL THE UNIVERSITY PRESS OF KENTUCKY Page iv Publication of this volume was made possible in part by a grant from the National Endowment for the Humanities. Copyright ©1997 by The University Press of Kentucky Scholarly publisher for the Commonwealth, serving Bellarmine College, Berea College, Centre College of Kentucky, Eastern Kentucky University, The Filson Club Historical Society, Georgetown College, Kentucky Historical Society, Kentucky State University, Morehead State University, Transylvania University, University of Kentucky, University of Louisville, and Western Kentucky University.
