By Anthony Heath
The critical quandary of Understanding Political Change is to discover the social and political assets of electoral swap in Britain. From the Labour successes of the Sixties throughout the reemergence of the Liberals as a countrywide strength in 1974 and the increase and fall of the SDP to the aptitude emergence of the golf green social gathering within the Nineteen Nineties, Dr Heath and his collaborators chart the continuously altering mold of British politics. Questions of the higher volatility of a extra refined citizens, of latest cleavages in society exchanging these in accordance with social category, of the Conservative government's planned and inadvertent interventions to form the rising social constitution, and of the effect which the political events were in a position to exert on public attitudes are all addressed almost about information from the election surveys conducted after every one normal election because 1964
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Extra resources for Understanding Political Change. The British Voter 1964–1987
Example text
In between there have been no clear trends in wavering, in by-election swings against the government, or in overall volatility. We would not wish to claim that any single measure is the right measure. Thus party identification, net volatility, overall volatility, and fluidity are different concepts with different uses, not rivals. And while we might expect to find some statistical association between the trends in net and overall volatility, there is nothing intrinsically implausible about their following rather different trends from fluidity.
1 shows the trends for this question. As we can see, just under half the electorate thought there was a good deal of difference between the parties in 1964, but this proportion gradually shrank to a third in the early 1970s. Thereafter it began to increase again. By 1979 it was back to the 1964 level and in 1983 it increased dramatically further. With the exception of 1974, these trends also parallel those in the level of Liberal voting. Rational choice theory predicts that, if the two main parties move apart, voting for the centre parties will increase, and broadly speaking this prediction is confirmed.
We could simply use whichever policy questions each team had thought appropriate to the election they studied. Unfortunately, this is not the case. Partly because they espoused a party identification theory of voting behaviour, Butler and Stokes asked many fewer policy questions than did their successors. We would thus stack the cards unfairly in favour of issue-voting if we compared the ten issue questions of, say, the 1964 survey with the fifty or so questions of the 1987 survey. We begin therefore by looking at the common issues which have been covered throughout the election study series.
