By Jeff Manza, Fay Lomax Cook, Benjamin I. Page
Read or Download Navigating Public Opinion: Polls, Policy, and the Future of American Democracy PDF
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Extra resources for Navigating Public Opinion: Polls, Policy, and the Future of American Democracy
Example text
21 More sweepingly, the research of Ansolabehere, Snyder, and Stewart (2001) reports long-term historical evidence of a variable impact of constituency opinion on candidates' issue and ideological positioning. , Clawson, Neustadtl, and Weller 1998). Increasing polarization in Congress, especially with the erosion of the Southern wing of the Democratic Party and the Northern liberal wing of the Republican Party, has reduced opportunities for bipartisan bargaining that may lead to more responsive outcomes.
Advocates of the first view have produced both multiple-issue quantitative studies, and more detailed case studies of policymaking within single policy domains. Some of these studies have produced high estimates of the association between majority opinion (or over-time changes in public opinion) and the adoption of new public policies. By contrast, those who insist the impact of public opinion is "small" express skepticism about the capacity of public opinion to influence policy outcomes. For some, the very concept of a coherent or consistent "public opinion" capable of moving legislators seems unlikely.
21. Monroe (1998) found that majority opinion on policy questions declined from 63% in the 1960-79 period to 55% in the 1980-93 period. Jacobs and Shapiro (i997a), in a preliminary investigation, found that policy responsiveness to public opinion in welfare, crime, Social Security, and health care fell from 67% in 1984-87 to just 36% during the first half of Bill Clinton's first term in office. 22. Ansolabehere et al. (2001) analyzed racial issues separately from other issues, to avoid confounding the peculiarities of racial politics among the Southern congressional delegations before the 19705.
